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Proposed IKEA's traffic impact will dwarf Costco

Uploaded: Mar 22, 2016
Dublin has been known for its big box stores for decades. Prior to the opening of Stoneridge Mall in 1981, it was the retail shopping hub of the valley.
Big box stores located along Interstate 580 came later to Pleasanton and Livermore and neither community has shied away from the retailers. Both have WalMarts, while Livermore also has its Costco and a Target (of course, Dublin has two Target stores).
The new big boxes now are poised to add lots of traffic and revenue to both Dublin and Pleasanton.
Costco has an agreement signed for a site in Pleasanton on Johnson Drive that will feature both a large store and the biggest gas station in the valley.
And last week it was announced that IKEA wants to locate its third Bay Area store in Dublin on Hacienda Boulevard next to I-580.
Both will have traffic impacts, but there’s no comparison. The better comparison is the traffic impact of what’s now dubbed the San Francisco Premium Outlets (originally, named Livermore) and IKEA. Given the tourists traveling from San Francisco hotels to the Livermore outlets, that’s clearly a regional draw.
The same will go for IKEA. It is a shopper’s magnet and not one that will not be well served by public transportation (it is, after all, furniture and other home furnishings). The only other Bay Area locations for IKEA are in Emeryville and East Palo Alto and the Dublin store is proposed at nearly 340,000 square feet. That more than twice the size of the average Costco store, which is the largest versions are about 200,000 square feet.
It will be interesting to see what the traffic analysis shows for those intersections in Dublin and Pleasanton and the impact on an already over-burdened I-580 on weekends. When I have been on I-580 on weekends and even mid-day during the week, I have been struck by the major back-ups approaching the I-680 interchange that easily stretch back to the Hacienda interchange. Just how an IKEA will fit in that mix will be daunting—particularly since there is no money and no plans to build the flyway from westbound 580 to southbound 680. And, IKEA, unlike the outlet mall, will generate traffic on most weekends, not just peak shopping periods.
For Pleasanton, the IKEA will have a major effect on the Hacienda intersection. Adding in the Costco at Stoneridge Drive and I-680 also will have an impact, but it is mitigated significantly because there are two other Costcos in the market (Danville/San Ramon and Livermore). It will be a relatively local group of shoppers, although some people may find a Pleasanton store easier from the Mission San Jose district of Fremont than going to the Costco in Newark.
Pleasanton’s traffic engineer, Mike Tassano, predicts that with upgrades to streets and infrastructure, the I-680/Stoneridge/Johnson intersection will remain as bad as it is today (that’s my translation—he said it would be similar). More on the anti-Costco petition drive Thursday.
The Costco in Pleasanton will affect the immediate neighborhoods around it as well as the commute traffic, but is not a regional impact. IKEA and the Livermore outlets are both huge regional impacts. Livermore had the wonderful gift of putting the huge sales tax generator in the northwest corner of the city where it has no impact on Livermore neighborhoods—not so for Pleasanton or Dublin with these current proposals.
IKEA will impact I-580 just as the outlets have and also likely will send nearby Dublin residents looking for alternative routes if they want to get on I-580.
What is it worth to you?


Posted by DKHSK, a resident of Bridle Creek,
on Mar 22, 2016 at 9:01 am

DKHSK is a registered user.

But, but, but...Matt Sullivan says that 12000(!) cars will be going into Costco DAILY!

I kid, kinda.

I always use Hacienda as a way to shorten my trips to a ranch out in the Tassajara valley area and it looks like I'll have to change my route back to Santa Rita after the Ikea is built.

And forget about using west-bound 580 on the return trip. The traffic trying to go south-bound on 680 will be 10x worse. Looks like I'll have to go through the town.


Posted by SHale99, a resident of another community,
on Mar 22, 2016 at 11:41 am

SHale99 is a registered user.

So, what is the answer? don't build ANYTHING after a person moves into the area? Whatever land is open at time of 'move in' should remain open forever?
OK, sure that will work.
A new Costco will not create a significant amount of BRAND new members. It will reduce traffic (region wise, shorter trips etc). An Ikea? Perhaps in the beginning more 'new' customers, but really after a fashion will be folks driving a shorter distance to get to an Ikea.
Flip side of traffic (increases) is a huge sales tax increate.
And yes I'm at the Dougherty Valley/Hopyard ramps twice a day......

Posted by DKHSK, a resident of Bridle Creek,
on Mar 22, 2016 at 12:30 pm

DKHSK is a registered user.


I'm not sure to whom you are directing your point, but I am in favor of both Costco and Ikea. I was being sarcastic about Matt Sullivan' claims of traffic at the Costco site.

Posted by SHale99, a resident of another community,
on Mar 22, 2016 at 12:47 pm

SHale99 is a registered user.

DKHSK: Well, at the blog itself. Not a poster....yet... :) And yes, I too don't believe there will be anything near 12k cars, on ave, per day. Posted as such back in 'that' thread. That would be like 20k people PER day....I think not. I also believe another Costco will benefit far more folks then those who have complaints. Less driving, etc etc. And if a biz owner can't park their 'fleet' on that street, that is just how the ball bounces and rolls. Needs of the many out weight the needs of the few (or the one).
I'm all for both a Costco and an Ikea. why not? It's not like they will open and have NO customers. Those who complain should direct their ire at the customers, not the biz owner. And yes, that will get me into much trouble. Oh well. This is a protected sandbox for some.....

Posted by Resident of Ventana Hills, a resident of Another Pleasanton neighborhood,
on Mar 22, 2016 at 3:04 pm

Good analysis, per usual, Tim.

IKEA traffic concerns also pretty much dwarf the measly traffic effects the Lund Ranch II referendum supporters have been banging their drum about--all their time and effort(which will be continuing up until the June 7th vote), now at the expense of our substantial taxpayer dollars (six figures/quarter of a million plus), to prevent traffic access to 31 of the approved project's 43 homes from going through their neighborhoods (Sycamore Heights and Bridle Creek), contesting a fair compromise decision the Mayor and City Council made on January 5th, per your blog post on March 3rd.

NIMBYism here, NIMBYism there, NIMBYism everywhere.

Posted by ThinkingResident, a resident of Another Pleasanton neighborhood,
on Mar 24, 2016 at 9:06 am

The EIR produced by the city of Pleasanton is the document that projects an 12,000-18,000 vehicles if a big box store is put on Johnson Drive. These respondents here are like the other 'educated' commentors around the country who refuse to recognize the facts given, and instead push forward their own views based on nothing. Naysayers, the traffic will get dramatically worse, and you'll be sitting in a mess cursing the cities of Pleasanton and Dublin like the rest of us!

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