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The San Ramon Valley Unified School District’s board of education is set to hear a presentation outlining enrollment and demographic projections at the district in the coming years, providing additional insight into declining enrollment locally and the impact of a global reduction in birth rates.
Overall, demographers from MGT Impact Solutions project that enrollment will reduce by 16% in the coming decade, going from 27,805 resident students in the current school year to 23,312 in the 2035 to 2036 school year across all grade levels throughout the district.
While the district has a high “capture rate” for its incoming kindergarten classes – meaning that “there is a higher influx of kindergarten enrollment than births in the area” — demographers project that this is insufficient to contend with enrollment declines amid downward trending birth rates. They project that “smaller incoming cohorts will gradually replace larger outgoing classes, accelerating decline at upper grade levels.”
While additional students are projected to come to the district amid ongoing new housing developments in the region, demographers noted that a majority of that new housing is set to consist of multi-family and transit-oriented developments, rather than single family homes, which they said yield more students.
“The number of units due to get built and occupied is not enough to offset the forecasted decline in resident student population district wide,” demographers from MGT wrote in the presentation for the upcoming meeting. “Single-family detached homes yield the highest student counts (0.31 K–6 per unit), while TOD housing yields far fewer students, shaping localized enrollment trends.”
Demographers noted that while enrollment decline is all but inevitable, it is crucial for the district to continue monitoring the situation and to maintain or increase yield rates, “as additional decreases in yield rates would accelerate overall student enrollment decline.”
While the presentation and report are informational only, conversations about projected enrollment declines are also front and center of the district’s budgeting process, which is set to move forward this week with a vote on its second interim budget report, covering the period from July 1 through Jan. 31.
Overall, the report indicates a nearly $14.8 million decrease across the district’s general fund, which amounted to $32.7 million at the start of the year and is projected to end the year at $17.9 million.
While that outlook is grim, it is less so than the nearly $15.2 million decrease that was forecast in the first interim budget report, with district management projecting the ending fund balance at $391,432 more than had previously been anticipated.
Other changes in revenue since the first interim report include a 0.5% increase in state funding amounting to $441,818 and a 22% increase in local funding, which includes a $5.3 million grant for zero-emission buses and $1.7 million in PTA funding for the restricted fund. An additional $1.2 million is projected for the unrestricted fund, consisting of $703,000 in revenue from leases at 3130 Crow Canyon Boulevard – where the district is set to relocate its offices – $100,000 in facility use fees, and $437,000 from the pool facilities at Diablo Valley High School.
But some expenditures have also increased since the first interim report. That includes a 0.23% increase in certificated salaries, a 1% increase in classified salaries, and a 1.5% increase in spending on employee benefits. Spending on services is also set to increase by 1.7% to a total of nearly $66.2 million, including $330,000 in legal fees.
While spending continues to be high compared with revenue in the current school year, district management project that the situation will stabilize somewhat in the coming years as general fund spending is reduced. That number is set to reduce to $7.3 million in the next academic year, then to $2.9 million in the following year – at which point the general fund is projected to stand at $7.6 million, $6.5 million of which would be legally restricted.
Nonetheless, the district is expected to maintain its reserve funding at or above the legally required 3%, with reserve amounts estimated to increase from 4.09% in the current year to 4.47% in the 2027 to 2028 school year.
District management are recommending that the board vote to certify the report as positive, at which point it would be forwarded for review by the Contra Costa County Office of Education – which declined to certify last year’s budget as positive and instead as “qualified.”
The SRVUSD board is set to meet at 6 p.m. Tuesday (March 10). The agenda is available here.
In other business
Rep. Mark DeSaulnier (D-Concord) is set to provide a federal level update.
The district is set to issue proclamations recognizing April as Arab American Heritage Month and School Library Month, as well as Public School Volunteer Appreciation week from April 20 to 24, Environmental Week from April 15 to 22, and the National Day of Silence on April 17.
The board is set to hold a public hearing and take a vote on the proposed academic calendar for the 2027 to 2028 academic year.
In a closed session ahead of the public meeting, the board is set to hold negotiations with all four of its bargaining units, discuss appointing a new principal at Montair Elementary School, and hold a conference on an employee dismissal/discipline item.
