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At an event last weekend, I caught rumblings of just how tough the enrollment situation is getting in Pleasanton.
Monday I reached out to the downsized media relations staff at the school district to confirm what the Oct. 1 student census showed and did not hear back as of Wednesday evening. I will update this when I hear back.
The San Francisco Chronicle, with its new Tri-Valley beat, reported on enrollment throughout the Tri-Valley. It should be noted that both San Ramon and Dublin grew rapidly based on masterplans in the Dougherty Valley (San Ramon) and East Dublin plus a little bit in the western hills along Interstate 580. That resulted in construction of many schools although Dublin missed entirely on the need for a second high school and Shapell Homes had to build another school in its development when enrollment far outstripped the estimates in the plan.
That has slowed. The Windemere half of the Dougherty Valley is built out and it is nearing the same on the other half. The only substantial development in San Ramon will be the restructuring of Bishop Ranch into a mixed-use community plus a few pockets west of I-680.
Dublin still is pursuing its eastward expansion, approved by voters a few times by voters since the mid-1990s. Most of “doubling Dublin” as we dubbed it in the 1990s has taken place. The enrollment growth, not surprisingly, has slowed, but it’s still increasing.
Not so for Pleasanton. I went back and looked at the annual demographer’s reports to the district. The 2024 enrollment, 13,696, was estimated to be 14,512 in the 2020 report. The highest enrollment was in 2017-18 at 14,879. Since then, the district spokeswoman told the Chronicle it has declined by 887 students (prior to the current year).
The demographer’s report estimated a 6.5% annual enrollment decline. That means budget cuts, staff layoffs and belt tightening at a time when the city is facing structural deficits as well. Last year, the district launched an effort to convince workers commuting here from elsewhere to bring their kids with them and enroll in Pleasanton schools.
The city’s stop-and-go efforts to plan the expansive eastside contributed to some enrollment drop, but the new people moving into existing neighborhoods simply are not having as many children. New residents are characterized by significant education levels (more than 25% masters degrees, more than 60% bachelor’s) and high income to hurdle the economic barrier to entry.
Moving forward, both school leaders and city leaders will be challenged to manage the change well and continue to provide the quality of life the city is known for.
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