For decades, the rhythms of the real estate market have been as predictable as the changing seasons.
Spring brought eager buyers armed with preapprovals, summer sustained the momentum with families eager to move before the school year and fall ushered in a notable slowdown that persisted through winter.
Do these old patterns still hold true?
This past summer challenged many of our assumptions about real estate seasonality. While speculation swirled about a shift toward a buyer’s market, fueled by increased inventory and cautious consumer sentiment, the reality has been more nuanced.
“As I’ve said, and many of my colleagues have said, we’re seeing a much more balanced market,” explained Tracey Esling, 2025 president of the Bay East Association of Realtors. “Buyers and sellers may often need it to be one’s market or the other, but it’s not that simple. It’s not the extreme buyer’s market some predicted, but it’s also not the frenzied seller’s market we experienced in recent years.”
This balanced environment might be redefining the “best” time to buy or sell.
Recent data suggests that mid to late October, traditionally considered the beginning of the market’s slow season, may offer one of 2025’s most advantageous windows for buyers.
The month presents a compelling combination with an estimated 30% more active listings than average in the San Francisco Bay Area compared with the start of the year, potential savings from price reductions, and less competition from other buyers.
“The traditional spring and summer rush still exists, but there are buyers who understand market dynamics and recognize opportunities in what used to be considered the off-season,” Esling said. “Sellers who choose to remain on the market through fall tend to be more motivated, and buyers have more room to negotiate without the pressure of multiple offers.”
This shift raises an important question for both buyers and sellers: should you still consider the calendar when considering real estate decisions, or are the market conditions during the moment when someone is in the market all that matter?
A well-priced home with strong presentation can attract serious buyers year-round.
For buyers, the evidence increasingly suggests that patience may be rewarded. Those willing to shop when competition thins, whether that’s late fall, winter, or even early spring before things heat up, often find sellers more willing to negotiate on both price and terms.
Esling said, “The seasonality of real estate in the Tri-Valley may not be all that prevalent. We currently have a market made for anyone who is ready to take that next step to buy or sell. Contrary to popular belief, the market doesn’t have to be for one or the other.”
The reduced pressure also allows for more thoughtful decision-making, rather than the rushed choices that characterize competitive spring markets.
“We’re still seeing some seasonal patterns,” Esling noted, “but they’re not nearly as pronounced as people truly believe. Life circumstances don’t always align with ‘traditional’ spring selling season. Buyers and sellers who focus solely on the calendar might miss the opportunities right in front of them.”
Perhaps the more important question isn’t whether real estate is seasonal, but whether seasonality should dictate your decisions. In a balanced market where neither buyers nor sellers hold overwhelming leverage, the “right time” to buy or sell increasingly depends on your personal readiness, financial situation, and long-term goals rather than the date on the calendar.
“If you’ve been waiting for the perfect moment to enter the market the answer might be simpler than you think,” Esling added. “The best time is when you’re prepared, properly advised and ready to make a move that aligns with your life plans, regardless of what season it happens to be.”
Editor’s note: Devin Davis is a public affairs specialist for the Bay East Association of Realtors, which is based in Pleasanton.
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