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After three years of relatively flat home sales, the housing market may see meaningful growth during 2026.
The National Association of Realtors projects a 14% increase in existing home sales nationwide, while the California Association of Realtors forecasts a 2% rise in California sales.
Both organizations cite the combination of mortgage rates in the 6% range, more homes on the market, and modest affordability improvements as key drivers of the anticipated rebound.
For the East Bay, the national and state trends signal a market that could be finding its footing after years of extremes.
“Things seem like they’re becoming more balanced,” said Bill Espinola, 2026 president of the Bay East Association of Realtors. “Buyers are more thoughtful instead of rushed, and sellers are pricing more realistically. That’s right on track with what we’re seeing from both the national and California forecasts. Less extremes, and a little more predictability.”
Mortgage rates remain a central factor shaping buyer behavior. With rates expected to hover around 6% rather than returning to pandemic-era lows, the market dynamics have shifted.
“Those 6% interest rates mean buyers are being more intentional, but they’re not going away,” Espinola noted. “What we’re seeing is buyers adjusting expectations rather than leaving the market. Buyers can figure out their budgets, compare options, and move forward confidently.”
Recent market data supports this measured approach. In the Tri-Valley during 2025, homes spent more time on the market than a year prior, but sales activity was almost unchanged.
“That tells me demand is still there, it’s just more measured,” Espinola said. “Homes aren’t flying off the shelf, but they’re also not sitting forever. Buyers are touring, asking smart questions, and then moving forward when the home makes sense for them.”
Looking ahead, Espinola expects more sellers to enter the market as conditions normalize.
His advice is direct, “Work with your Realtor to price for the market you know, not the one that’s already passed. Buyers are active, but they’re informed. Homes that are prepared well, staged thoughtfully, and priced realistically still attract strong interest. The goal isn’t to test the market, it’s to meet it.”
Espinola added that the evolving landscape may present advantages for buyers.
“With slightly more inventory and less competition, there’s more room for negotiation, more time to evaluate homes, and fewer pressure situations,” he said. “That kind of breathing room can make all the difference. The key is preparation. Working with a professional to be ready when the right home comes along.”
Editor’s note: Devin Davis is a public affairs specialist for the Bay East Association of Realtors, which is based in Pleasanton.
