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The Tri-Valley is growing as an economic powerhouse that compares with the Raleigh-Durham area of North Carolina.
The gross domestic product (GDP) for the valley is about $42 billion — with just a population of 361,000, compared to the North Carolina tech triangle with a population of more than 2 million.
That’s one of the many interesting findings in the new “Tri-Valley Rising 2018” report, an update to the first report done in 2014 by the Bay Area Council Economic Institute.
The Tri-Valley’s tech sector is a huge driver and helps account for the valley’s GDP per worker of $225,000, much higher than California’s at $160,000 and the United States’ at $132,000. Notably, in a comparison of tech regions across the country, only Boston is within shouting distance at 14% tech employment to the valley’s 19%. Raleigh-Durham is at 12%.
Released last week at an Innovation Tri-Valley Leadership Group event, the report identified five key attributes for the valley, starting with the excellence of its school system and its very well-educated workforce.
About 60% of residents had a bachelor’s degree or higher in 2016, a nice increase from 54% in 2012. Driving this are skilled foreign-born workers, a subgroup that has grown from 19% in 2006 to 27% in 2016.
Another key factor in the Tri-Valley’s success is location, almost equidistant between San Francisco and the Silicon Valley and the gateway to the more affordable housing in the San Joaquin Valley. The report also cites high-value, lower-cost commercial real estate, particularly in amenity-rich business parks like Bishop Ranch in San Ramon and Hacienda in Pleasanton.
The relative affordability of the Tri-Valley housing compared to Silicon Valley and San Francisco is also key, although with median prices for the first six months of 2018 topping $1 million-plus in every city except Livermore, that’s a factor regionally and a problem nationally and globally.
Two CEOs on the panel, Tim Harkness of UnChained Labs and Dave Selinger of Deep Sentinel, had differing views. Harkness recruits his high-skilled professionals in the Bay Area and sells great schools, great location with limited commutes and lower housing prices. The Tri-Valley advantages in these areas allow him to continue to build his skilled work force.
Selinger buys into that but points out how the service workers taking care of his home are churning at a rapid rate. His company is headquartered in Pleasanton and he loves the lifestyle of being able to mountain bike, take his daughters to public school and still work his long days. He also pointed out that he just put together a team of 10 skilled workers in China for the same cost as two here in the valley.
The high quality of life, particularly for those fortunate to live and work in the valley, is a big plus. Not so much for those who fight I-580 and I-680 during commute hours. When asked about threats to his business, Harkness cited the two freeways.
One of the striking aspects of “Tri-Valley Rising 2018” was the comparison to other tech-centered regions — Austin, Boston, Nashville, Portland, Raleigh-Durham and Silicon Valley.
Looking at productivity or GDP per worker, the Tri-Valley at $224,000 trailed only the Silicon Valley at $269,000. Other areas: Austin $141,000, Boston $162,000, Nashville $138,000, Portland $145,000 and Raleigh-Durham $91,000.
The educational level also is telling, with 60% of Tri-Valley residents holding bachelor’s or higher degrees. Austin (43%), Boston (47%), Nashville (34%), Portland (39%), Raleigh-Durham (44%) and Silicon Valley (50%). For the Tri-Valley, these numbers have changed dramatically, nearly doubling since the late 1990s when the Golden Valley report was compiled by the Tri-Valley Business Council.
Then, there’s housing, and the major advantages collapse. Based on Zillow’s home value index, the Tri-Valley’s home value is about $950,000. The next highest is Boston at about $420,000, while Nashville and Austin are both in the mid-$200,000 range, while Portland and Raleigh-Durham are in the mid-$300,000s.
The cost of housing shoves families over the Altamont Pass to San Joaquin County. More than 32,000 San Joaquin County residents commute into the Bay Area and the number going to Santa Clara County has increased by half, while it’s grown by about one-third in Alameda County. That’s put increasing pressure on four daily trips of the ACE train as well on I-580.
The silver lining in the BART board’s decision to cede its commitment to extend tracks to Livermore is it may result in a more flexible and better system to connect San Joaquin County and the Livermore Valley. The regional rail authority is working on a plan, due next year, to run trains like what BART uses in eastern Contra Costa County to connect Lathrop with the Dublin/Pleasanton BART stations with connections to ACE in Tracy and at Greenville Road in Livermore.
Early plans, which will use the abandoned Southern Pacific Railroad right-of-way that is owned by Alameda County through the Altamont Pass, indicate that it may be about the same cost as the five-mile BART extension to Isabel Avenue and it could be delivered years sooner.
The sooner the better because studies by the Metropolitan Transportation Commission show that Bay Area residents who live and work within a half-mile of rail and ferry stops use transit for 42% of their work trips, while people living outside this radius use transit only 4% of the time. Thus, the push for transit-oriented housing.
Among the recommendations in the report is for Innovation Tri-Valley to pull together business leaders and other stakeholders to create a 2040 plan. The goal is to maintain the vibrant economies while tackling the key issues that threaten the long-term viability of the area.
To read the report, visit www.innovationtrivalley.org.
Editor’s note: Journalist Tim Hunt has covered the Tri-Valley community for more than 40 years. He writes a “Tim Talk” blog appears twice a week at PleasantonWeekly.com.
Editor’s note: Journalist Tim Hunt has covered the Tri-Valley community for more than 40 years. He writes a “Tim Talk” blog appears twice a week at PleasantonWeekly.com.
Editor’s note: Journalist Tim Hunt has covered the Tri-Valley community for more than 40 years. He writes a “Tim Talk” blog appears twice a week at PleasantonWeekly.com.
