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Column by Devin Davis
The 2024 U.S. presidential election results may impact real estate differently at the national, state and local levels.
Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, shared his perspective on what the election, and other economic trends, mean for the real estate market during the 2024 NAR convention in Boston.
Yun expects the Federal Reserve to make several interest rate cuts. He said that while rates were near 4% during Donald Trump’s first term as president, it is unlikely they will return to those levels. Yun anticipates rates will settle in the 5.5% to 6.5% range.
Yun added home sales depend on a combination of jobs and rates and stock market conditions point to an acceleration in job growth.
Prior to the election, Jordan Levine, chief economist of the California Association of Realtors, predicted interest rates could drop into the high 5% range through 2025 and into 2026. Following the election, Levine updated his prediction and said rates increased slightly. If and when rates do drop, Levine said they likely won’t decrease as dramatically as California home buyers would hope.
Asked about the near-term future of real estate markets in California, Levine said, “My mantra of, ‘don’t wait for rates’ remains true. Buy as soon as you can.”
Yun and Levine both predicted moderate growth in home sales prices and project sales activity to increase between 10% and 11% during 2025.
Locally, real estate market momentum has been building during the months leading up to the election with consistently more homes listed for sale compared with the late summer and early fall of 2023.
Barbara Clemons, president of the Bay East Association of Realtors, said people still want to buy homes and live in the Bay Area regardless of the election results.
Clemons said, “Bay Area residents, and people who want to call the Bay Area home, are often very politically aware. They are also aware that this is a great place to be a homeowner, no matter who wins elections.”
She concluded, “There are lots of factors that go into someone deciding to both buy and sell a home. Looking at the big picture, I see an uptick in the housing market during 2025.”
Editor’s note: Devin Davis is a public affairs specialist for the Bay East Association of Realtors, which is based in Pleasanton.
