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If you’ve been following housing news lately, you’ve likely heard plenty about mortgage rates. The average 30-year fixed rate was 6.86% in September, up from 6.35% a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors.
But rates are only part of the story. Here in the East Bay, the real story looks much different: Prices are inching back up, buyers may have fewer homes to choose from, and homes are still selling.
“When mortgage rates move, buyers seem to notice it right away,” said Bill Espinola, 2026 president of the Bay East Association of Realtors. “But the national numbers are averages. Real estate is hyper-local, and what’s happening here in the East Bay often looks very different from what’s happening elsewhere.”
Home prices across the East Bay rose more than 6% from August and more than 5% from September 2025. It was the first increase since May.
Compare that with the entire western part of the country, where NAR reported the median price slipped 0.3% from a year ago, the only U.S. region where prices dipped. Nationally, the median single-family price was up 1.2%.
Buyers also have fewer options than they did a year ago. The number of homes for sale across the East Bay has held relatively steady in recent months but remains less than last September.
“A headline can tell you which way the country could be moving, but it can’t tell you what’s happening on your street,” Espinola said. “That’s why we encourage people to look at the numbers for their own city, along with the national headlines.”
Closer to home, the Tri-Valley is a good reminder of just how local real estate can be. Livermore, Pleasanton and Dublin are neighbors, but their real estate market conditions tell three different stories.
Livermore stood out. Sales rose 18% while the median price climbed 13% compared to last September. Homes for sale were up 25%, which gave buyers more to choose from, yet they still moved quickly. Homes sold in 23 days, down from 34 days a year ago.
“Livermore is a great example of what happens when buyers have more to choose from,” Espinola said. “Even with prices slightly up, buyers are still ready to act when the right home comes along.”
Pleasanton looked different. The median price rose 4%, but sales fell 25% and homes took 37 days to sell, up from 26 a year ago. Sellers appear to be holding on to value, while buyers are in less of a hurry.
Dublin had its own story. The median price dropped 9%, and homes took 31 days to sell, compared with 24 a year ago.
Put the three cities side by side and a pattern emerges. Prices ranged from a 13% increase in Livermore to a 9% decrease in Dublin. Homes sold 11 days faster in Livermore, but 11 days slower in Pleasanton and seven days slower in Dublin. Three cities within a few miles of each other, all facing the same mortgage rates, produced very different results.
So, what does it all mean? NAR chief economist Dr. Lawrence Yun noted that more homes for sale and homes taking longer to sell are giving buyers more negotiating power. Dublin, with more homes on the market and a longer time to sell, fits that pattern. Livermore, where homes are selling faster, shows that some buyers still want to move quickly regardless of the rates.
It also shows that a slower market isn’t necessarily a falling one. In Pleasanton, prices rose even as sales dropped.
“Fewer sales don’t mean the market is collapsing,” Espinola said. “It means buyers are being more selective, and sellers are being realistic about pricing. The right strategy depends on the neighborhood and the price point.”
For buyers, Espinola encourages starting early. “Now is the time to be talking with your Realtor,” he said. “When you know your budget and your options, you’re ready to move when the right home comes along.”
For sellers, he says the message is just as local: “Look at what’s happening in your own neighborhood, not just the headlines. Pricing it right from the start matters more than ever.”
In other words, the market hasn’t stopped. It’s just more selective, and more local, than the headlines suggest.
Espinola added that interest rates will keep making headlines, but for anyone who values location, lifestyle and long-term equity, the real story in the East Bay is that the market is evolving, and opportunities are still here.
Editor’s note: Devin Davis is a public affairs specialist for the Bay East Association of Realtors, which is based in Pleasanton.
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