|
Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...
|
Last fall, we asked: Is real estate still seasonal?
For decades, the calendar told the story of more homes on the market and more curious buyers during the spring, a busy summer, fewer sales during the fall and a quiet winter. But that rhythm has been becoming more irregular.
“Seasonality still plays a role, but not to the same degree that it used to because it intersects with the chronically under-supplied housing market,” said Jordan Levine, chief economist of the California Association of Realtors.
As we begin to close the books on the summer of 2026 and head into fall, current market data shows there’s more to the rhythm of real estate than the calendar. A slightly clearer picture than we had a year ago.
“Affordability has changed everything and it’s truly tied to supply. We see it especially here locally,” said Bill Espinola, 2026 president of the Bay East Association of Realtors. “Buyers don’t necessarily wait for a season, but when the numbers work for them. Right now, the things like payments, rates and prices matter a lot more than time of year.”
In July, detached single-family homes on the market in most of our local cities came in below where they were a year earlier which would be considered an odd pattern for what’s supposed to be the market’s peak selling season.
In Pleasanton, listings were down from 100 during July 2025 to 83 this July and Livermore slipped from 116 to 108. If summer alone drove the market, inventory and activity would have followed the calendar. They didn’t.
Home sales told a similar story. Pleasanton had a 29% decline in single-family sales last month, even while prices dipped about 6%. This isn’t a market cooling because the weather might be. It’s a market responding to what buyers can actually afford.
We see that the Tri-Valley numbers aren’t uniform across the board, and that’s part of the point. Dublin beat the trend, with listings up 40% year-over-year and a median price up about 15%.
When one city climbs while a neighbor a few miles away pulls back, that’s not a season at work, that’s affordability, price point and local supply pulling buyers in different directions.
“We’ve been saying this for a long time: the buyers and sellers who understand their numbers, and lean on a Realtor who knows the neighborhoods, do well in any month,” Espinola added.
As we trade summer for fall, the idea of waiting until things pick up and more homes come on the market might deserve some rethinking. The right season is the one where the numbers line up for buyers and sellers.
Editor’s note: Devin Davis is a public affairs specialist for the Bay East Association of Realtors, which is based in Pleasanton.
San Ramon police credit Flock cameras with helping nab fleeing armed robbery suspectsAugust 20, 2026 9:26 am
